The US Election is the biggest transition project on the planet! One of the biggest external factors that can influence your own career plans! Are you ready?
The US Election is the biggest transition project on the planet! One of the biggest external factors that can influence your own plans!
Whilst having an immediate effect on those in the US, the knock on effect across the globe is always ultimately quite substantial over the course of a presidency. Everyone has a view on the American President these days!
When you are in transition, there are some things you are in control of and others that you aren’t. As the Serenity Prayer outlined almost a century ago, the key is to accept the things you can’t change, have courage to change the things you can and the wisdom to know the difference. In part I agree. However, just because you can’t control some things doesn’t mean you can’t make the most of it through preparation and diligence.
Whether you are in the UK faced with another Covid19 lockdown, in the US eagerly wondering the outcomes of the election or elsewhere, it is important to make sure you’re aware of those factors within your control and those that aren’t.
You might say it’s impossible to control external factors or try to predict them. But is it?
There are many ways to prepare for external change. Research is key. Today there is more information available to you than on any previous day in human history! If you can master the art of research and forming your own opinions based on viable sources, you can gain a strategic advantage and ensure your affairs are in order in the best possible way.
I recently came across work undertaken by Professor Allan Lichtman. Having teamed up with one of the world leaders in tracking Hurricanes, they turned their eyes to politics and created a framework which has resulted in them correctly predicting every US election since 1984! When the model is applied retrospectively, it shows who would have won every single election and the model works every time!
N.B. if you don’t want to read the detail of the 13 keys, skip to the next heading – SPOILERS!
THE 13 KEYS TO THE PRESIDENCY
The following are the 13 Keys and Lichtman’s assessment of how they turn:
- After the midterm election, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the preceding midterm election. (FALSE)
- The incumbent-party nominee gets at least two-thirds of the vote on the first ballot at the nominating convention. (TRUE)
- The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)
- There is no third-party or independent candidacy that wins at least 5% of the vote. (TRUE)
- The economy is not in recession during the campaign. (FALSE)
- Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. (FALSE)
- The administration achieves a major policy change during the term, on the order of the New Deal or the first-term Reagan “revolution.” (TRUE)
- There has been no major social unrest during the term, sufficient to cause deep concerns about the unravelling of society. (FALSE)
- There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches the president. (FALSE)
- There has been no military or foreign policy failure during the term, substantial enough that it appears to undermine America’s national interests significantly or threaten its standing in the world. (TRUE)
- There has been a military or foreign policy success during the term substantial enough to advance America’s national interests or improve its standing in the world. (FALSE)
- The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero. (FALSE)
- The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero. (TRUE)
So in short, in a few days’ time the President of the USA will be President Biden! Interestingly, according to this model, if the Black Lives Matter movement (Key 8) and Covid19 (Key 5) had not taken place, it would be only 5 and Trump would be re-elected; according to this model he is out.
This article in a few days’ time will either age very well or very badly. But we aren’t here to say we believe in a model; we are here to consider it. The “key” from my perspective is that Lichtman’s model is just one example of a strategy that can be applied. For every Professor Lichtman there is a Professor Belat Stantic, an analyst who is convinced Trump will win based on outcomes in Florida and Pennsylvania. You must also be mindful that a model or strategy or information can be interpreted differently. For example, you could argue that Trump is charismatic and therefore Key 12 would be true, and in the same way recent developments in the Middle East some would say was substantial and therefore Key 11 would be deemed as true also. If you turn those keys then President Trump wins.
Our takeaway today, is whatever the election brings and whatever external challenges are brought to your career journey, there is always a way to research, gather opinion, look for an angle or a strategic advantage, and ultimately keep moving forward in a positive trajectory. The key is research, strategy, flexibility and persistence. It’s a challenging time right now, but we are seeing more and more people make huge positive moves forward every day.
If you’re struggling a little with your scenario then get in touch for a chat at www.careerships.com or through our social media channels and we might be able to give you that different perspective.